Águilas 2–1 Cartagena II: Result & Stats

Águilas

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cartagena II

4/14/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2nd Phase - 1Estadio El Rubial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Águilas48%

×Draw25%

Cartagena II26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ÁguilasExpected goals in this matchCartagena II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.10

Águilas

1.58

Cartagena II

1.10

Águilas creates 44% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 27 away

2.10

creates per match

1.33

0.88

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Águilas

2.10

Cartagena II

1.33

allows per match

Águilas

0.88

Cartagena II

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Águilas+0.00on par

Cartagena II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas ↓

Cartagena II →

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Águilas or draw

74%

Águilas or Cartagena II

75%

Draw or Cartagena II

52%

Winning margin

Águilas wins by 2+

25%

Cartagena II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Águilas 1+ goals

79%

Águilas 2+ goals

47%

Águilas 3+ goals

21%

Cartagena II 1+ goals

67%

Cartagena II 2+ goals

30%

Cartagena II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Águilas (draw refunded)

65%

Cartagena II (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Águilas at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.88 · 42 matches

Cartagena II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Águilas attack 2.10 + Cartagena II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.58

Cartagena II attack 1.33 + Águilas defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Águilas scores more

48%

level

25%

Cartagena II scores more

26%

Águilas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Águilas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff