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Cartagena FC vs Archena Sport — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Cartagena FC
Cartagena FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Archena Sport
Archena Sport
2/27/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 25Ciudad Deportiva Gómez Meseguer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cartagena FC35%
×Draw27%
Archena Sport39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartagena FC
1.23
Archena Sport
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 17 away

creates per match

Cartagena FC
1.18
Archena Sport
1.06

allows per match

Cartagena FC
1.55
Archena Sport
1.29

finishing

Cartagena FC+0.00on par
Archena Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena FC ↓

Archena Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cartagena FC or draw
61%
Cartagena FC or Archena Sport
73%
Draw or Archena Sport
65%

Winning margin

Cartagena FC wins by 2+
15%
Archena Sport wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Cartagena FC 1+ goals
71%
Cartagena FC 2+ goals
35%
Cartagena FC 3+ goals
13%
Archena Sport 1+ goals
73%
Archena Sport 2+ goals
38%
Archena Sport 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cartagena FC (draw refunded)
47%
Archena Sport (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartagena FC at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.55 · 44 matches

Archena Sport away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena FC attack 1.18 + Archena Sport defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Archena Sport attack 1.06 + Cartagena FC defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cartagena FC scores more
35%
level
27%
Archena Sport scores more
39%

Archena Sport at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Archena Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cartagena FC 1 – 0 Archena Sport

Cartagena FC beat Archena Sport 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 27, 2022.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Gómez Meseguer in Cartagena.