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Archena Sport vs Cartagena FC — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Archena Sport
Archena Sport
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Cartagena FC
Cartagena FC
10/17/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 8Campo de fútbol Municipal Andrés Abenza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Archena Sport42%
×Draw24%
Cartagena FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Archena Sport
1.58
Cartagena FC
1.37

Archena Sport creates 15% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 44 away

creates per match

Archena Sport
1.65
Cartagena FC
1.09

allows per match

Archena Sport
1.65
Cartagena FC
1.52

finishing

Archena Sport+0.00on par
Cartagena FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Archena Sport ↓

Cartagena FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Archena Sport or draw
67%
Archena Sport or Cartagena FC
76%
Draw or Cartagena FC
58%

Winning margin

Archena Sport wins by 2+
21%
Cartagena FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Archena Sport 1+ goals
79%
Archena Sport 2+ goals
47%
Archena Sport 3+ goals
21%
Cartagena FC 1+ goals
75%
Cartagena FC 2+ goals
40%
Cartagena FC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Archena Sport (draw refunded)
56%
Cartagena FC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Archena Sport at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Cartagena FC away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Archena Sport attack 1.65 + Cartagena FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.58

Cartagena FC attack 1.09 + Archena Sport defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Archena Sport scores more
42%
level
24%
Cartagena FC scores more
33%

Archena Sport at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Archena Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Archena Sport 1 – 3 Cartagena FC

Cartagena FC beat Archena Sport 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 17, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol Municipal Andrés Abenza in Archena.