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Carrarese vs Avellino — Serie B 2020

Carrarese
Carrarese
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
Avellino
Avellino
N. Schiavi 81'
M. Cicconi 25' (pen)
F. Abiuso 16'
M. Besaggio 67'
R. Russo 56'
F. Ruggeri 37' (OG)
V. Crespi 18'
9/21/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 4Stadio dei Marmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Carrarese51%
×Draw26%
Avellino23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carrarese
1.48
Avellino
0.89

Carrarese creates 66% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 20 away

creates per match

Carrarese
1.32
Avellino
0.85

allows per match

Carrarese
0.92
Avellino
1.65

finishing

Carrarese+0.00on par
Avellino+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carrarese ↓

Avellino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Carrarese or draw
77%
Carrarese or Avellino
74%
Draw or Avellino
49%

Winning margin

Carrarese wins by 2+
26%
Avellino wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Carrarese 1+ goals
77%
Carrarese 2+ goals
43%
Carrarese 3+ goals
19%
Avellino 1+ goals
59%
Avellino 2+ goals
22%
Avellino 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Carrarese (draw refunded)
69%
Avellino (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carrarese at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches

Avellino away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carrarese attack 1.32 + Avellino defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.48

Avellino attack 0.85 + Carrarese defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Carrarese scores more
51%
level
26%
Avellino scores more
23%

Carrarese at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Carrarese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
V. CrespiAvellinoAvellino · F
8.9

Match Events

1'
Lorenco Šimić
16'
F. Abiuso↳ N. Sekulov
18'
V. Crespi↳ D. Sounas
22'
Patrick Enrici
25'
M. CicconiPenalty
30'
Patrick Enrici
30'
Patrick Enrici
37'
F. RuggeriOwn goal
38'
A. Fontanarosa← R. Insigne
38'
M. Besaggio← L. Simic
44'
Kleis Bozhanaj
44'
Tommaso Biasci
46'
A. Arena← K. Bozhanaj
46'
R. Russo← T. Biasci
56'
R. Russo↳ V. Crespi
57'
N. Schiavi← L. Hasa
57'
S. Zanon← B. Salamon
63'
C. Manzi← F. Missori
67'
M. Besaggio↳ V. Crespi
69'
M. Finotto← N. Sekulov
72'
F. Lescano← V. Crespi
73'
E. Torregrossa← D. Bouah
78'
Alessandro Fontanarosa
81'
N. Schiavi

Possession

58%Carrarese

Shots

20Carrarese

Pass accuracy

52%Carrarese

Statistics

CarrareseAvellino
Overview
58%Possession42%
20Total Shots5
9Corners2
19Fouls14
Shots
20Total Shots5
6On Target3
9Off Target1
5Blocked1
12Inside Box5
8Outside Box0
Passing
58%Possession42%
453Total Passes347
400Accurate Passes281
88%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
19Fouls14
1Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards1
0Offsides1

Serie B: Carrarese 3–4 Avellino

Avellino beat Carrarese 4-3 in Serie B on September 21, 2025.

Goals: F. Abiuso (16'), V. Crespi (18'), M. Cicconi (25' pen), F. Ruggeri (37' o.g.), R. Russo (56'), M. Besaggio (67'), N. Schiavi (81').

Carrarese controlled possession (58%) and registered 20 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stadio dei Marmi in Carrara.