Avellino 1–2 Carrarese: Result & Stats | Serie B

Avellino

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Carrarese

T. Biasci 2'

F. Abiuso 71'

T. Rubino 13'

1/17/2026

Serie B · Round 20Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Avellino47%

×Draw25%

Carrarese28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AvellinoExpected goals in this matchCarrarese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.14

Avellino

1.56

Carrarese

1.14

Avellino creates 37% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

1.37

creates per match

0.95

1.32

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Avellino

1.37

Carrarese

0.95

allows per match

Avellino

1.32

Carrarese

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avellino+0.00on par

Carrarese+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avellino ↓

Carrarese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Avellino or draw

72%

Avellino or Carrarese

75%

Draw or Carrarese

53%

Winning margin

Avellino wins by 2+

24%

Carrarese wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Avellino 1+ goals

79%

Avellino 2+ goals

46%

Avellino 3+ goals

21%

Carrarese 1+ goals

68%

Carrarese 2+ goals

32%

Carrarese 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Avellino (draw refunded)

63%

Carrarese (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avellino at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Carrarese away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.74 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avellino attack 1.37 + Carrarese defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.56

Carrarese attack 0.95 + Avellino defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Avellino scores more

47%

level

25%

Carrarese scores more

28%

Avellino at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Avellino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

T. Biasci

Avellino · F

7.9

Match Events

2'

13'

23'

33'

46'

48'

63'

D. Sounas← M. Palumbo

63'

M. Cicconi← N. Belloni

63'

F. Melegoni← T. Rubino

64'

C. Patierno← T. Biasci

71'

F. Abiuso

72'

A. Favilli← L. Palmiero

73'

Dimitrios Sounas

76'

L. D'Andrea← T. Cancellotti

86'

G. Parlanti← E. Zuelli

86'

M. Finotto← F. Abiuso

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AvellinoCarrarese

Overview

58%Possession42%

13Total Shots12

0.74Expected Goals (xG)1.23

6Corners4

14Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots12

5On Target6

4Off Target4

4Blocked2

5Inside Box5

8Outside Box7

Passing

58%Possession42%

521Total Passes380

449Accurate Passes303

86%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1