Carmen București W 2–5 Banat Girls W

Carmen București W

FT

2 – 5

Banat Girls W

5/23/2021

Liga 1 Feminin · Relegation Round - 8Stadionul Progresul Spartac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Carmen București W62%

×Draw17%

Banat Girls W21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carmen București WExpected goals in this matchBanat Girls W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.86

1.63

Carmen București W

2.86

Banat Girls W

1.63

Carmen București W creates 75% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 43 away

2.95

creates per match

1.30

1.95

allows per match

2.77

creates per match

Carmen București W

2.95

Banat Girls W

1.30

allows per match

Carmen București W

1.95

Banat Girls W

2.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carmen București W+0.00on par

Banat Girls W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carmen București W ↓

Banat Girls W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Carmen București W or draw

79%

Carmen București W or Banat Girls W

83%

Draw or Banat Girls W

38%

Winning margin

Carmen București W wins by 2+

42%

Banat Girls W wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Carmen București W 1+ goals

94%

Carmen București W 2+ goals

77%

Carmen București W 3+ goals

53%

Banat Girls W 1+ goals

80%

Banat Girls W 2+ goals

48%

Banat Girls W 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Carmen București W (draw refunded)

75%

Banat Girls W (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carmen București W at home — creates 2.95, concedes 1.95 · 22 matches

Banat Girls W away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.77 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carmen București W attack 2.95 + Banat Girls W defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.86

Banat Girls W attack 1.30 + Carmen București W defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Carmen București W scores more

62%

level

17%

Banat Girls W scores more

21%

Carmen București W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Carmen București W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff