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Banat Girls W vs Carmen București W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Banat Girls W
Banat Girls W
FT
0 – 4
Carmen București W
Carmen București W
5/7/2023Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Championship Round - 7Stadionul Comunal Comloșu Mare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Banat Girls W40%
×Draw20%
Carmen București W40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banat Girls W
2.31
Carmen București W
2.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 19 away

creates per match

Banat Girls W
2.24
Carmen București W
2.32

allows per match

Banat Girls W
2.29
Carmen București W
2.37

finishing

Banat Girls W+0.00on par
Carmen București W+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banat Girls W ↓

Carmen București W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Banat Girls W or draw
60%
Banat Girls W or Carmen București W
80%
Draw or Carmen București W
60%

Winning margin

Banat Girls W wins by 2+
23%
Carmen București W wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Banat Girls W 1+ goals
90%
Banat Girls W 2+ goals
67%
Banat Girls W 3+ goals
40%
Carmen București W 1+ goals
90%
Carmen București W 2+ goals
67%
Carmen București W 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Banat Girls W (draw refunded)
50%
Carmen București W (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banat Girls W at home — creates 2.24, concedes 2.29 · 45 matches

Carmen București W away — creates 2.32, concedes 2.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banat Girls W attack 2.24 + Carmen București W defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.31

Carmen București W attack 2.32 + Banat Girls W defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Banat Girls W scores more
40%
level
20%
Carmen București W scores more
40%

Banat Girls W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Banat Girls W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 1 Feminin: Banat Girls W 0–4 Carmen București W

Carmen București W beat Banat Girls W 4-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Comunal Comloșu Mare in Comloșu Mare.