Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Carlos Stein vs Ayacucho FC — Segunda División 2018

Carlos Stein
Carlos Stein
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Ayacucho FC
Ayacucho FC
6/6/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 9Estadio Carlos Samamé Cáceres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Carlos Stein31%
×Draw23%
Ayacucho FC46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlos Stein
1.49
Ayacucho FC
1.85

Ayacucho FC creates 24% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 29 away

creates per match

Carlos Stein
1.12
Ayacucho FC
1.45

allows per match

Carlos Stein
2.24
Ayacucho FC
1.86

finishing

Carlos Stein+0.00on par
Ayacucho FC+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos Stein ↓

Ayacucho FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Carlos Stein or draw
54%
Carlos Stein or Ayacucho FC
77%
Draw or Ayacucho FC
69%

Winning margin

Carlos Stein wins by 2+
14%
Ayacucho FC wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Carlos Stein 1+ goals
77%
Carlos Stein 2+ goals
44%
Carlos Stein 3+ goals
19%
Ayacucho FC 1+ goals
84%
Ayacucho FC 2+ goals
55%
Ayacucho FC 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Carlos Stein (draw refunded)
40%
Ayacucho FC (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos Stein at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.24 · 33 matches

Ayacucho FC away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.86 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos Stein attack 1.12 + Ayacucho FC defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.49

Ayacucho FC attack 1.45 + Carlos Stein defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Carlos Stein scores more
31%
level
23%
Ayacucho FC scores more
46%

Ayacucho FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ayacucho FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Carlos Stein 3–3 Ayacucho FC

Carlos Stein and Ayacucho FC drew 3-3 in Segunda División on June 6, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Samamé Cáceres in Ferreñafe.