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Ayacucho FC vs Carlos Stein — Primera División 2018

Ayacucho FC
Ayacucho FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Carlos Stein
Carlos Stein
2/12/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 2Estadio Ciudad de Cumaná

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ayacucho FC53%
×Draw24%
Carlos Stein23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ayacucho FC
1.73
Carlos Stein
1.07

Ayacucho FC creates 62% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 32 away

creates per match

Ayacucho FC
1.54
Carlos Stein
0.91

allows per match

Ayacucho FC
1.24
Carlos Stein
1.91

finishing

Ayacucho FC+0.00on par
Carlos Stein+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayacucho FC ↓

Carlos Stein →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ayacucho FC or draw
77%
Ayacucho FC or Carlos Stein
76%
Draw or Carlos Stein
47%

Winning margin

Ayacucho FC wins by 2+
29%
Carlos Stein wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ayacucho FC 1+ goals
82%
Ayacucho FC 2+ goals
52%
Ayacucho FC 3+ goals
25%
Carlos Stein 1+ goals
66%
Carlos Stein 2+ goals
29%
Carlos Stein 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ayacucho FC (draw refunded)
69%
Carlos Stein (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayacucho FC at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

Carlos Stein away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayacucho FC attack 1.54 + Carlos Stein defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.73

Carlos Stein attack 0.91 + Ayacucho FC defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ayacucho FC scores more
53%
level
24%
Carlos Stein scores more
23%

Ayacucho FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ayacucho FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Ayacucho FC 2–1 Carlos Stein

Ayacucho FC beat Carlos Stein 2-1 in Primera División on February 12, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Cumaná in Ayacucho.