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Carlos Stein vs Ayacucho FC — Primera División 2018

Carlos Stein
Carlos Stein
PST
23:00
Ayacucho FC
Ayacucho FC
11/20/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Carlos Stein40%
×Draw25%
Ayacucho FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlos Stein
1.48
Ayacucho FC
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 104 away

creates per match

Carlos Stein
1.21
Ayacucho FC
1.06

allows per match

Carlos Stein
1.68
Ayacucho FC
1.74

finishing

Carlos Stein+0.00on par
Ayacucho FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos Stein ↓

Ayacucho FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Carlos Stein or draw
65%
Carlos Stein or Ayacucho FC
75%
Draw or Ayacucho FC
60%

Winning margin

Carlos Stein wins by 2+
19%
Ayacucho FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Carlos Stein 1+ goals
77%
Carlos Stein 2+ goals
43%
Carlos Stein 3+ goals
19%
Ayacucho FC 1+ goals
75%
Ayacucho FC 2+ goals
40%
Ayacucho FC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Carlos Stein (draw refunded)
53%
Ayacucho FC (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos Stein at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.68 · 34 matches

Ayacucho FC away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.74 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos Stein attack 1.21 + Ayacucho FC defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.48

Ayacucho FC attack 1.06 + Carlos Stein defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Carlos Stein scores more
40%
level
25%
Ayacucho FC scores more
35%

Carlos Stein at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Carlos Stein will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Carlos Stein face Ayacucho FC (Primera División)

Primera División returns with Carlos Stein hosting Ayacucho FC. Match starts November 20, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.