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Carlos Stein vs Alianza Universidad — Segunda División 2018

Carlos Stein
Carlos Stein
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Alianza Universidad
Alianza Universidad
7/24/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 16Estadio Carlos Samamé Cáceres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Carlos Stein24%
×Draw22%
Alianza Universidad53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlos Stein
1.23
Alianza Universidad
1.92

Alianza Universidad creates 56% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 43 away

creates per match

Carlos Stein
1.12
Alianza Universidad
1.60

allows per match

Carlos Stein
2.24
Alianza Universidad
1.33

finishing

Carlos Stein+0.00on par
Alianza Universidad+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos Stein ↓

Alianza Universidad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Carlos Stein or draw
47%
Carlos Stein or Alianza Universidad
78%
Draw or Alianza Universidad
76%

Winning margin

Carlos Stein wins by 2+
10%
Alianza Universidad wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Carlos Stein 1+ goals
71%
Carlos Stein 2+ goals
35%
Carlos Stein 3+ goals
13%
Alianza Universidad 1+ goals
85%
Alianza Universidad 2+ goals
57%
Alianza Universidad 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Carlos Stein (draw refunded)
31%
Alianza Universidad (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos Stein at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.24 · 33 matches

Alianza Universidad away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.33 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos Stein attack 1.12 + Alianza Universidad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Alianza Universidad attack 1.60 + Carlos Stein defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Carlos Stein scores more
24%
level
22%
Alianza Universidad scores more
53%

Alianza Universidad at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Alianza Universidad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carlos Stein vs Alianza Universidad

Alianza Universidad beat Carlos Stein 2-0 in Segunda División on July 24, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Samamé Cáceres in Ferreñafe.