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Alianza Universidad vs Carlos Stein — Segunda División 2018

Alianza Universidad
Alianza Universidad
FT
7 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Carlos Stein
Carlos Stein
7/14/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 17Estadio Heraclio Tapia León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Alianza Universidad68%
×Draw18%
Carlos Stein14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Universidad
2.44
Carlos Stein
1.02

Alianza Universidad creates 139% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 34 away

creates per match

Alianza Universidad
2.09
Carlos Stein
1.09

allows per match

Alianza Universidad
0.95
Carlos Stein
2.79

finishing

Alianza Universidad+0.00on par
Carlos Stein+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Universidad ↓

Carlos Stein →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Alianza Universidad or draw
86%
Alianza Universidad or Carlos Stein
82%
Draw or Carlos Stein
32%

Winning margin

Alianza Universidad wins by 2+
46%
Carlos Stein wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Alianza Universidad 1+ goals
91%
Alianza Universidad 2+ goals
70%
Alianza Universidad 3+ goals
43%
Carlos Stein 1+ goals
64%
Carlos Stein 2+ goals
27%
Carlos Stein 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Alianza Universidad (draw refunded)
83%
Carlos Stein (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Universidad at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.95 · 43 matches

Carlos Stein away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Universidad attack 2.09 + Carlos Stein defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.44

Carlos Stein attack 1.09 + Alianza Universidad defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Alianza Universidad scores more
68%
level
18%
Carlos Stein scores more
14%

Alianza Universidad at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Alianza Universidad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Alianza Universidad 7–0 Carlos Stein

Alianza Universidad beat Carlos Stein 7-0 in Segunda División on July 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Heraclio Tapia León in Huánuco.