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Carlos Stein vs Alianza Universidad — Primera División 2018

Carlos Stein
Carlos Stein
PST
19:00
Alianza Universidad
Alianza Universidad
7/26/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 2Estadio César Flores Marigorda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Carlos Stein41%
×Draw25%
Alianza Universidad34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlos Stein
1.50
Alianza Universidad
1.35

Carlos Stein creates 11% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 62 away

creates per match

Carlos Stein
1.21
Alianza Universidad
1.02

allows per match

Carlos Stein
1.68
Alianza Universidad
1.79

finishing

Carlos Stein+0.00on par
Alianza Universidad+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos Stein ↓

Alianza Universidad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Carlos Stein or draw
66%
Carlos Stein or Alianza Universidad
75%
Draw or Alianza Universidad
59%

Winning margin

Carlos Stein wins by 2+
20%
Alianza Universidad wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Carlos Stein 1+ goals
78%
Carlos Stein 2+ goals
44%
Carlos Stein 3+ goals
19%
Alianza Universidad 1+ goals
74%
Alianza Universidad 2+ goals
39%
Alianza Universidad 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Carlos Stein (draw refunded)
54%
Alianza Universidad (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos Stein at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.68 · 34 matches

Alianza Universidad away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.79 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos Stein attack 1.21 + Alianza Universidad defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.50

Alianza Universidad attack 1.02 + Carlos Stein defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Carlos Stein scores more
41%
level
25%
Alianza Universidad scores more
34%

Carlos Stein at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Carlos Stein will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Carlos Stein face Alianza Universidad (Primera División)

Primera División returns with Carlos Stein hosting Alianza Universidad. Match starts July 26, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Carlos Stein host Alianza Universidad at Estadio César Flores Marigorda.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.