Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Carlos Stein vs Alianza Lima — Primera División 2018

Carlos Stein
Carlos Stein
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima
9/18/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 12Estadio Víctor Montoya Segura

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Carlos Stein31%
×Draw26%
Alianza Lima43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlos Stein
1.15
Alianza Lima
1.42

Alianza Lima creates 23% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 151 away

creates per match

Carlos Stein
1.21
Alianza Lima
1.17

allows per match

Carlos Stein
1.68
Alianza Lima
1.09

finishing

Carlos Stein+0.00on par
Alianza Lima+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos Stein ↓

Alianza Lima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Carlos Stein or draw
57%
Carlos Stein or Alianza Lima
74%
Draw or Alianza Lima
69%

Winning margin

Carlos Stein wins by 2+
12%
Alianza Lima wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Carlos Stein 1+ goals
68%
Carlos Stein 2+ goals
32%
Carlos Stein 3+ goals
11%
Alianza Lima 1+ goals
76%
Alianza Lima 2+ goals
41%
Alianza Lima 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Carlos Stein (draw refunded)
41%
Alianza Lima (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos Stein at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.68 · 34 matches

Alianza Lima away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.09 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos Stein attack 1.21 + Alianza Lima defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.15

Alianza Lima attack 1.17 + Carlos Stein defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Carlos Stein scores more
31%
level
26%
Alianza Lima scores more
43%

Alianza Lima at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Alianza Lima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carlos Stein vs Alianza Lima

Alianza Lima beat Carlos Stein 2-1 in Primera División on September 18, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Víctor Montoya Segura in Jaén.