Alianza Lima 5–2 Carlos Stein: Result & Stats

Alianza Lima

FT

5 – 2

HT: 3 – 2

Carlos Stein

5/1/2022

Primera División · Apertura - 12Estadio Alejandro Villanueva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Alianza Lima62%

×Draw22%

Carlos Stein16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza LimaExpected goals in this matchCarlos Stein

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

0.84

Alianza Lima

1.87

Carlos Stein

0.84

Alianza Lima creates 123% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 32 away

1.83

creates per match

0.91

0.77

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Alianza Lima

1.83

Carlos Stein

0.91

allows per match

Alianza Lima

0.77

Carlos Stein

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Lima+0.00on par

Carlos Stein+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Lima ↓

Carlos Stein →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Alianza Lima or draw

84%

Alianza Lima or Carlos Stein

78%

Draw or Carlos Stein

38%

Winning margin

Alianza Lima wins by 2+

36%

Carlos Stein wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Alianza Lima 1+ goals

85%

Alianza Lima 2+ goals

56%

Alianza Lima 3+ goals

29%

Carlos Stein 1+ goals

57%

Carlos Stein 2+ goals

21%

Carlos Stein 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Alianza Lima (draw refunded)

79%

Carlos Stein (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Lima at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.77 · 151 matches

Carlos Stein away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Lima attack 1.83 + Carlos Stein defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.87

Carlos Stein attack 0.91 + Alianza Lima defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Alianza Lima scores more

62%

level

22%

Carlos Stein scores more

16%

Alianza Lima at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Alianza Lima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff