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Carlos Stein vs ADT — Primera División 2018

Carlos Stein
Carlos Stein
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
ADT
ADT
2/6/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 1Estadio César Flores Marigorda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Carlos Stein39%
×Draw26%
ADT35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlos Stein
1.42
ADT
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 78 away

creates per match

Carlos Stein
1.21
ADT
0.97

allows per match

Carlos Stein
1.68
ADT
1.62

finishing

Carlos Stein+0.00on par
ADT+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos Stein ↓

ADT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Carlos Stein or draw
65%
Carlos Stein or ADT
74%
Draw or ADT
61%

Winning margin

Carlos Stein wins by 2+
19%
ADT wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Carlos Stein 1+ goals
76%
Carlos Stein 2+ goals
41%
Carlos Stein 3+ goals
17%
ADT 1+ goals
73%
ADT 2+ goals
38%
ADT 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Carlos Stein (draw refunded)
53%
ADT (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos Stein at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.68 · 34 matches

ADT away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.62 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos Stein attack 1.21 + ADT defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.42

ADT attack 0.97 + Carlos Stein defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Carlos Stein scores more
39%
level
26%
ADT scores more
35%

Carlos Stein at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Carlos Stein will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Carlos Stein 0–0 ADT

Carlos Stein and ADT drew 0-0 in Primera División on February 6, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio César Flores Marigorda in Lambayeque.