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ADT vs Carlos Stein — Primera División 2018

ADT
ADT
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Carlos Stein
Carlos Stein
7/10/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 1Estadio Municipal Unión de Tarma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

ADT56%
×Draw24%
Carlos Stein20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADT
1.70
Carlos Stein
0.90

ADT creates 89% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 32 away

creates per match

ADT
1.49
Carlos Stein
0.91

allows per match

ADT
0.88
Carlos Stein
1.91

finishing

ADT+0.00on par
Carlos Stein+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADT ↓

Carlos Stein →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

ADT or draw
80%
ADT or Carlos Stein
76%
Draw or Carlos Stein
44%

Winning margin

ADT wins by 2+
31%
Carlos Stein wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

ADT 1+ goals
82%
ADT 2+ goals
51%
ADT 3+ goals
24%
Carlos Stein 1+ goals
59%
Carlos Stein 2+ goals
23%
Carlos Stein 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

ADT (draw refunded)
74%
Carlos Stein (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADT at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.88 · 80 matches

Carlos Stein away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADT attack 1.49 + Carlos Stein defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.70

Carlos Stein attack 0.91 + ADT defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

ADT scores more
56%
level
24%
Carlos Stein scores more
20%

ADT at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "ADT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: ADT 1–0 Carlos Stein

ADT beat Carlos Stein 1-0 in Primera División on July 10, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Unión de Tarma in Tarma.