Carlos Stein 2–1 Academia Cantolao: Result & Stats

Carlos Stein

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Academia Cantolao

5/8/2022

Primera División · Apertura - 13Estadio Víctor Montoya Segura

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Carlos Stein40%

×Draw26%

Academia Cantolao34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carlos SteinExpected goals in this matchAcademia Cantolao

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.30

Carlos Stein

1.44

Academia Cantolao

1.30

Carlos Stein creates 11% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 102 away

1.21

creates per match

0.93

1.68

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Carlos Stein

1.21

Academia Cantolao

0.93

allows per match

Carlos Stein

1.68

Academia Cantolao

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlos Stein+0.00on par

Academia Cantolao+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos Stein ↓

Academia Cantolao →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Carlos Stein or draw

66%

Carlos Stein or Academia Cantolao

74%

Draw or Academia Cantolao

60%

Winning margin

Carlos Stein wins by 2+

19%

Academia Cantolao wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Carlos Stein 1+ goals

76%

Carlos Stein 2+ goals

42%

Carlos Stein 3+ goals

18%

Academia Cantolao 1+ goals

73%

Academia Cantolao 2+ goals

37%

Academia Cantolao 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Carlos Stein (draw refunded)

54%

Academia Cantolao (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos Stein at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.68 · 34 matches

Academia Cantolao away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.68 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos Stein attack 1.21 + Academia Cantolao defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.44

Academia Cantolao attack 0.93 + Carlos Stein defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Carlos Stein scores more

40%

level

26%

Academia Cantolao scores more

34%

Carlos Stein at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Carlos Stein will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff