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Academia Cantolao vs Carlos Stein — Primera División 2018

Academia Cantolao
Academia Cantolao
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Carlos Stein
Carlos Stein
9/28/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 13Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Academia Cantolao46%
×Draw25%
Carlos Stein28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Academia Cantolao
1.53
Carlos Stein
1.14

Academia Cantolao creates 34% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 32 away

creates per match

Academia Cantolao
1.16
Carlos Stein
0.91

allows per match

Academia Cantolao
1.37
Carlos Stein
1.91

finishing

Academia Cantolao+0.00on par
Carlos Stein+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academia Cantolao ↓

Carlos Stein →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Academia Cantolao or draw
72%
Academia Cantolao or Carlos Stein
75%
Draw or Carlos Stein
54%

Winning margin

Academia Cantolao wins by 2+
23%
Carlos Stein wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Academia Cantolao 1+ goals
78%
Academia Cantolao 2+ goals
45%
Academia Cantolao 3+ goals
20%
Carlos Stein 1+ goals
68%
Carlos Stein 2+ goals
32%
Carlos Stein 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Academia Cantolao (draw refunded)
62%
Carlos Stein (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academia Cantolao at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.37 · 101 matches

Carlos Stein away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academia Cantolao attack 1.16 + Carlos Stein defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.53

Carlos Stein attack 0.91 + Academia Cantolao defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Academia Cantolao scores more
46%
level
25%
Carlos Stein scores more
28%

Academia Cantolao at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Academia Cantolao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Academia Cantolao vs Carlos Stein

Academia Cantolao beat Carlos Stein 3-2 in Primera División on September 28, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno in Lima.