Carlos Renaux 0–1 Camboriú: Result & Stats

Carlos Renaux

Pens

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Camboriú

7/29/2024

Catarinense - 2 · Play-offsEstádio Doutor Hercílio Luz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Carlos Renaux52%

×Draw33%

Camboriú16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carlos RenauxExpected goals in this matchCamboriú

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.47

Carlos Renaux

1.11

Camboriú

0.47

Carlos Renaux creates 136% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 11 away

1.05

creates per match

0.55

0.38

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Carlos Renaux

1.05

Camboriú

0.55

allows per match

Carlos Renaux

0.38

Camboriú

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlos Renaux+0.00on par

Camboriú+0.00on par

Total goals

Under79
Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No75
Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos Renaux ↓

Camboriú →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–021%

0–110%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–023%

1–111%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (23%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

79%21%1.5

47%53%2.5

21%79%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Carlos Renaux or draw

84%

Carlos Renaux or Camboriú

67%

Draw or Camboriú

48%

Winning margin

Carlos Renaux wins by 2+

22%

Camboriú wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Carlos Renaux 1+ goals

67%

Carlos Renaux 2+ goals

30%

Carlos Renaux 3+ goals

10%

Camboriú 1+ goals

37%

Camboriú 2+ goals

8%

Camboriú 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Carlos Renaux (draw refunded)

77%

Camboriú (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

14%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos Renaux at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.38 · 21 matches

Camboriú away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos Renaux attack 1.05 + Camboriú defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.11

Camboriú attack 0.55 + Carlos Renaux defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Carlos Renaux scores more

52%

level

33%

Camboriú scores more

16%

Carlos Renaux at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Carlos Renaux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff