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Camboriú vs Carlos Renaux — Catarinense - 2 2022

Camboriú
Camboriú
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Carlos Renaux
Carlos Renaux
8/23/2025Catarinense - 2Catarinense - 2 · FinalsEstádio Emília Mendes Rodrigues

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Camboriú38%
×Draw30%
Carlos Renaux32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Camboriú
1.11
Carlos Renaux
0.98

Camboriú creates 13% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 22 away

creates per match

Camboriú
1.00
Carlos Renaux
1.09

allows per match

Camboriú
0.86
Carlos Renaux
1.23

finishing

Camboriú+0.00on par
Carlos Renaux+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Camboriú ↓

Carlos Renaux →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Camboriú or draw
68%
Camboriú or Carlos Renaux
70%
Draw or Carlos Renaux
62%

Winning margin

Camboriú wins by 2+
16%
Carlos Renaux wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Camboriú 1+ goals
67%
Camboriú 2+ goals
30%
Camboriú 3+ goals
10%
Carlos Renaux 1+ goals
62%
Carlos Renaux 2+ goals
26%
Carlos Renaux 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Camboriú (draw refunded)
55%
Carlos Renaux (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Camboriú at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Carlos Renaux away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Camboriú attack 1.00 + Carlos Renaux defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Carlos Renaux attack 1.09 + Camboriú defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Camboriú scores more
38%
level
30%
Carlos Renaux scores more
32%

Camboriú at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Camboriú will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Catarinense - 2: Camboriú 1–1 Carlos Renaux

Camboriú and Carlos Renaux drew 1-1 in Catarinense - 2 on August 23, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Emília Mendes Rodrigues in Imbituba, Santa Catarina.