Carlos A. Mannucci 3–3 Sport Huancayo

Carlos A. Mannucci

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Sport Huancayo

R. Lagos 77' (pen)

J. Fernández 70'

O. Noronha 49'

J. Fernández 82' (OG)

C. Ross 37'

M. Valverde 20' (pen)

10/12/2019

Primera División · Clausura - 11Estadio Mansiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Carlos A. Mannucci39%

×Draw28%

Sport Huancayo33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carlos A. MannucciExpected goals in this matchSport Huancayo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.13

Carlos A. Mannucci

1.26

Sport Huancayo

1.13

Carlos A. Mannucci creates 12% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 142 away

1.04

creates per match

1.04

1.22

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Carlos A. Mannucci

1.04

Sport Huancayo

1.04

allows per match

Carlos A. Mannucci

1.22

Sport Huancayo

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlos A. Mannucci+0.00on par

Sport Huancayo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos A. Mannucci ↓

Sport Huancayo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Carlos A. Mannucci or draw

67%

Carlos A. Mannucci or Sport Huancayo

72%

Draw or Sport Huancayo

61%

Winning margin

Carlos A. Mannucci wins by 2+

17%

Sport Huancayo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Carlos A. Mannucci 1+ goals

72%

Carlos A. Mannucci 2+ goals

36%

Carlos A. Mannucci 3+ goals

13%

Sport Huancayo 1+ goals

68%

Sport Huancayo 2+ goals

31%

Sport Huancayo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Carlos A. Mannucci (draw refunded)

54%

Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos A. Mannucci at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.22 · 89 matches

Sport Huancayo away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.48 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos A. Mannucci attack 1.04 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.26

Sport Huancayo attack 1.04 + Carlos A. Mannucci defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Carlos A. Mannucci scores more

39%

level

28%

Sport Huancayo scores more

33%

Carlos A. Mannucci at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Carlos A. Mannucci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

O. Noronha

Carlos A. Mannucci · F

8.7

Match Events

20'

M. ValverdePenalty

26'

Milton Benitez

37'

C. Ross↳ D. Morales

42'

Andres Lopez

46'

J. Villamarín← M. Tajima

46'

B. Ubierna← A. López

49'

O. Noronha

64'

G. Ramos← D. Manicero

67'

Gonzalo Ramos

70'

J. Fernández↳ O. Noronha

77'

R. LagosPenalty

82'

J. FernándezOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CarlosSport

Overview

53%Possession47%

18Total Shots14

9Corners6

22Fouls15

Shots

18Total Shots14

7On Target5

3Off Target6

8Blocked3

11Inside Box5

7Outside Box9

Passing

53%Possession47%

371Total Passes313

251Accurate Passes209

68%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

22Fouls15

1Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

5Offsides1