Carlos A. Mannucci 1–0 Alianza Atletico

Carlos A. Mannucci

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Alianza Atletico

M. Succar 31'

4/17/2023

Primera División · Apertura - 12Estadio Mansiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Carlos A. Mannucci43%

×Draw27%

Alianza Atletico29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carlos A. MannucciExpected goals in this matchAlianza Atletico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.05

Carlos A. Mannucci

1.33

Alianza Atletico

1.05

Carlos A. Mannucci creates 27% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 96 away

1.04

creates per match

0.89

1.22

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Carlos A. Mannucci

1.04

Alianza Atletico

0.89

allows per match

Carlos A. Mannucci

1.22

Alianza Atletico

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlos A. Mannucci+0.00on par

Alianza Atletico+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos A. Mannucci ↓

Alianza Atletico →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Carlos A. Mannucci or draw

71%

Carlos A. Mannucci or Alianza Atletico

73%

Draw or Alianza Atletico

57%

Winning margin

Carlos A. Mannucci wins by 2+

20%

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Carlos A. Mannucci 1+ goals

74%

Carlos A. Mannucci 2+ goals

38%

Carlos A. Mannucci 3+ goals

15%

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals

65%

Alianza Atletico 2+ goals

28%

Alianza Atletico 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Carlos A. Mannucci (draw refunded)

59%

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos A. Mannucci at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.22 · 89 matches

Alianza Atletico away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.61 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos A. Mannucci attack 1.04 + Alianza Atletico defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.33

Alianza Atletico attack 0.89 + Carlos A. Mannucci defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Carlos A. Mannucci scores more

43%

level

27%

Alianza Atletico scores more

29%

Carlos A. Mannucci at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Carlos A. Mannucci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

A. Cossio

Carlos A. Mannucci · D

7.9

Match Events

27'

Leiner Escalante

31'

M. Succar↳ E. Perleche

57'

Manuel Ganoza

58'

M. Amondarain← J. Portales

67'

Matías Succar

70'

Michael Rasmussen

71'

B. Urrutia← E. Gonzáles

71'

J. Núñez← M. Rasmussen

71'

M. Matzuda← M. Cornejo

73'

Erick Perleche

78'

F. González← L. Escalante

78'

M. Llontop← E. Perleche

78'

78'

79'

84'

84'

90+3'

90'

J. Racchumick← M. Ganoza

90+1'

J. Manzaneda← A. Perleche

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CarlosAlianza

Overview

47%Possession53%

18Total Shots9

12Corners5

21Fouls15

Shots

18Total Shots9

6On Target3

5Off Target4

7Blocked2

14Inside Box8

4Outside Box1

Passing

47%Possession53%

330Total Passes378

234Accurate Passes265

71%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

21Fouls15

5Yellow Cards4

4Offsides3