Alianza Atletico vs Carlos A. Mannucci — Primera División 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 88+ matches
Alianza Atletico48%
Carlos A. Mannucci26%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Alianza Atletico creates 46% more chances
Season form · 94 home / 88 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Alianza Atletico ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Alianza Atletico at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.94 · 94 matches
Carlos A. Mannucci away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.59 · 88 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Alianza Atletico attack 1.47 + Carlos A. Mannucci defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.53
Carlos A. Mannucci attack 1.17 + Alianza Atletico defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.05
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
Alianza Atletico at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "Alianza Atletico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Alianza Lima
Cusco
Universitario
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Sporting Cristal
Cienciano
FBC Melgar
Deportivo Garcilaso
ADTAlianza Atletico
Comerciantes Unidos
Sport Huancayo
Sport Boys
Atletico Grau
Juan Pablo II College
UTC Cajamarca
Ayacucho FC
Alianza Universidad
UCV Moquegua
FC Cajamarca
Deportivo BinacionalIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Alianza Atletico host Carlos A. Mannucci on Sunday, 26 May 2024 at 19:30. The match is part of the Primera División 2026/2027 season.
Primera División: Alianza Atletico 0–0 Carlos A. Mannucci
Alianza Atletico and Carlos A. Mannucci drew 0-0 in Primera División on May 26, 2024.
Alianza Atletico controlled possession (60%) and registered 24 shots to 7.
The match was played at Estadio Campeones del '36 in Sullana.