Carlisle 4–0 Stevenage: Result & Stats | League Two

Carlisle

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Stevenage

J. Riley 73'

L. Alessandra 34'

J. Kayode 19'

N. Anderton 10'

12/12/2020

League Two · Round 17Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Carlisle42%

×Draw28%

Stevenage30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarlisleExpected goals in this matchStevenage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.00

Carlisle

1.25

Stevenage

1.00

Carlisle creates 25% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 100 away

1.26

creates per match

0.80

1.21

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Carlisle

1.26

Stevenage

0.80

allows per match

Carlisle

1.21

Stevenage

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par

Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Stevenage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw

70%

Carlisle or Stevenage

72%

Draw or Stevenage

58%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+

19%

Stevenage wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals

71%

Carlisle 2+ goals

36%

Carlisle 3+ goals

13%

Stevenage 1+ goals

63%

Stevenage 2+ goals

26%

Stevenage 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)

59%

Stevenage (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.26 + Stevenage defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.25

Stevenage attack 0.80 + Carlisle defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Carlisle scores more

42%

level

28%

Stevenage scores more

30%

Carlisle at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Carlisle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

N. Anderton

Carlisle · D

9.0

Match Events

10'

N. Anderton↳ C. Guy

19'

J. Kayode↳ C. Guy

34'

L. Alessandra↳ N. Anderton

43'

Romain Vincelot

44'

Luke Prosser

46'

R. Marshall← R. Hutton

65'

68'

71'

73'

74'

74'

76'

76'

G. Reilly← L. Alessandra

80'

O. Akinwande← A. Oteh

80'

J. Smith← T. Marsh

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CarlisleStevenage

Overview

46%Possession54%

24Total Shots1

7Corners1

10Fouls14

Shots

24Total Shots1

8On Target0

12Off Target1

4Blocked0

13Inside Box0

11Outside Box1

Passing

46%Possession54%

283Total Passes339

153Accurate Passes197

54%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls14

0Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0