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Carlisle vs Stevenage — League Two 2018

Carlisle
Carlisle
CANC
00:00
Stevenage
Stevenage
4/25/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 46Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Carlisle42%
×Draw28%
Stevenage30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlisle
1.25
Stevenage
1.00

Carlisle creates 25% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 100 away

creates per match

Carlisle
1.26
Stevenage
0.80

allows per match

Carlisle
1.21
Stevenage
1.24

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par
Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Stevenage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw
70%
Carlisle or Stevenage
72%
Draw or Stevenage
58%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+
19%
Stevenage wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals
71%
Carlisle 2+ goals
36%
Carlisle 3+ goals
13%
Stevenage 1+ goals
63%
Stevenage 2+ goals
26%
Stevenage 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)
59%
Stevenage (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.26 + Stevenage defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.25

Stevenage attack 0.80 + Carlisle defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Carlisle scores more
42%
level
28%
Stevenage scores more
30%

Carlisle at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Carlisle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Carlisle host Stevenage

April 25, 2020: Carlisle take on Stevenage in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Carlisle host Stevenage at Brunton Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.