Carlisle 2–0 Scunthorpe: Result & Stats

Carlisle

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Scunthorpe

J. Mellish 62', 60'

4/6/2021

League Two · Round 40Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Carlisle50%

×Draw25%

Scunthorpe25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarlisleExpected goals in this matchScunthorpe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.02

Carlisle

1.57

Scunthorpe

1.02

Carlisle creates 54% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 64 away

1.26

creates per match

0.83

1.21

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Carlisle

1.26

Scunthorpe

0.83

allows per match

Carlisle

1.21

Scunthorpe

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par

Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Scunthorpe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw

75%

Carlisle or Scunthorpe

75%

Draw or Scunthorpe

50%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+

26%

Scunthorpe wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals

79%

Carlisle 2+ goals

46%

Carlisle 3+ goals

21%

Scunthorpe 1+ goals

64%

Scunthorpe 2+ goals

27%

Scunthorpe 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)

67%

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Scunthorpe away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.88 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.26 + Scunthorpe defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.57

Scunthorpe attack 0.83 + Carlisle defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Carlisle scores more

50%

level

25%

Scunthorpe scores more

25%

Carlisle at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Carlisle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

C. Guy

Carlisle · M

8.5

Match Events

18'

Abobaker Eisa← D. Green

45'

60'

62'

73'

75'

J. McAtee← A. Beestin

75'

O. Olomola← R. Loft

80'

D. Furman← J. Riley

87'

C. Scott← L. Alessandra

87'

E. Walker← O. Patrick

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CarlisleScunthorpe

Overview

44%Possession56%

20Total Shots2

10Corners4

11Fouls7

Shots

20Total Shots2

3On Target2

9Off Target0

8Blocked0

14Inside Box2

6Outside Box0

Passing

44%Possession56%

335Total Passes434

224Accurate Passes299

67%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls7

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1