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Carlisle vs Scunthorpe — League Two 2018

Carlisle
Carlisle
CANC
00:00
Scunthorpe
Scunthorpe
4/13/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 44Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Carlisle50%
×Draw25%
Scunthorpe25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlisle
1.57
Scunthorpe
1.02

Carlisle creates 54% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 64 away

creates per match

Carlisle
1.26
Scunthorpe
0.83

allows per match

Carlisle
1.21
Scunthorpe
1.88

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par
Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Scunthorpe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw
75%
Carlisle or Scunthorpe
75%
Draw or Scunthorpe
50%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+
26%
Scunthorpe wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals
79%
Carlisle 2+ goals
46%
Carlisle 3+ goals
21%
Scunthorpe 1+ goals
64%
Scunthorpe 2+ goals
27%
Scunthorpe 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)
67%
Scunthorpe (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Scunthorpe away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.88 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.26 + Scunthorpe defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.57

Scunthorpe attack 0.83 + Carlisle defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Carlisle scores more
50%
level
25%
Scunthorpe scores more
25%

Carlisle at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Carlisle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Carlisle host Scunthorpe

April 13, 2020: Carlisle take on Scunthorpe in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Carlisle host Scunthorpe at Brunton Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.