Carlisle 0–1 Morecambe: Result & Stats | League Two

Carlisle

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Morecambe

G. Edwards 61'

12/26/2024

League Two · Round 22Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Carlisle44%

×Draw26%

Morecambe30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarlisleExpected goals in this matchMorecambe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.19

Carlisle

1.50

Morecambe

1.19

Carlisle creates 26% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 93 away

1.26

creates per match

1.17

1.21

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Carlisle

1.26

Morecambe

1.17

allows per match

Carlisle

1.21

Morecambe

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par

Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Morecambe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw

70%

Carlisle or Morecambe

74%

Draw or Morecambe

56%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+

22%

Morecambe wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals

78%

Carlisle 2+ goals

44%

Carlisle 3+ goals

19%

Morecambe 1+ goals

70%

Morecambe 2+ goals

33%

Morecambe 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)

60%

Morecambe (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Morecambe away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.73 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.26 + Morecambe defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.50

Morecambe attack 1.17 + Carlisle defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Carlisle scores more

44%

level

26%

Morecambe scores more

30%

Carlisle at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Carlisle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

D. Tutonda

Morecambe · D

8.5

Match Events

37'

Luke Hendrie

60'

Jack Ellis

60'

D. Adu-Adjei← D. Sadi

61'

G. Edwards↳ M. Dackers

62'

Jon Mellish

68'

P. Lewis← H. Macadam

69'

H. Biggins← S. Lavelle

69'

81'

81'

89'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CarlisleMorecambe

Overview

63%Possession37%

8Total Shots15

9Corners7

9Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots15

2On Target6

4Off Target3

2Blocked6

6Inside Box12

2Outside Box3

Passing

63%Possession37%

494Total Passes293

396Accurate Passes194

80%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

2Offsides1