Carlisle 3–1 Morecambe: Result & Stats | League Two

Carlisle

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Morecambe

G. Tanner 86'

J. Mellish 3'

Y. Songo'o 1' (OG)

Y. Songo'o 79'

10/27/2020

League Two · Round 9Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Carlisle44%

×Draw26%

Morecambe30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarlisleExpected goals in this matchMorecambe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.19

Carlisle

1.50

Morecambe

1.19

Carlisle creates 26% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 93 away

1.26

creates per match

1.17

1.21

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Carlisle

1.26

Morecambe

1.17

allows per match

Carlisle

1.21

Morecambe

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par

Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Morecambe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw

70%

Carlisle or Morecambe

74%

Draw or Morecambe

56%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+

22%

Morecambe wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals

78%

Carlisle 2+ goals

44%

Carlisle 3+ goals

19%

Morecambe 1+ goals

70%

Morecambe 2+ goals

33%

Morecambe 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)

60%

Morecambe (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Morecambe away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.73 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.26 + Morecambe defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.50

Morecambe attack 1.17 + Carlisle defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Carlisle scores more

44%

level

26%

Morecambe scores more

30%

Carlisle at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Carlisle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

C. Guy

Carlisle · M

7.7

Match Events

1'

Y. Songo'oOwn goal

3'

J. Mellish↳ J. Riley

37'

Joe Riley

50'

John O'Sullivan

59'

A. Phillips← Carlos Gomes

73'

G. Reilly← G. Touré

77'

D. Furman← J. Riley

79'

F. Price← J. OSullivan

79'

Y. Songo'o↳ A. Wildig

81'

Yann Songo'o

85'

L. McAlinden← T. Diagouraga

86'

G. Tanner↳ C. Guy

88'

M. Obiero← L. Alessandra

89'

Gavin Reilly

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CarlisleMorecambe

Overview

45%Possession55%

17Total Shots11

4Corners6

19Fouls14

Shots

17Total Shots11

6On Target2

8Off Target4

3Blocked5

9Inside Box9

8Outside Box2

Passing

45%Possession55%

337Total Passes398

190Accurate Passes230

56%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

19Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2