Carlisle 0–1 Bradford: Result & Stats | League Two

Carlisle

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bradford

C. Kavanagh 54'

1/18/2025

League Two · Round 27Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Carlisle38%

×Draw27%

Bradford35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarlisleExpected goals in this matchBradford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.18

Carlisle

1.25

Bradford

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 112 home / 139 away

1.26

creates per match

1.15

1.21

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Carlisle

1.26

Bradford

1.15

allows per match

Carlisle

1.21

Bradford

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par

Bradford+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Bradford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw

65%

Carlisle or Bradford

73%

Draw or Bradford

62%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+

17%

Bradford wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals

71%

Carlisle 2+ goals

36%

Carlisle 3+ goals

13%

Bradford 1+ goals

69%

Bradford 2+ goals

33%

Bradford 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)

52%

Bradford (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Bradford away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.24 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.26 + Bradford defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.25

Bradford attack 1.15 + Carlisle defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Carlisle scores more

38%

level

27%

Bradford scores more

35%

Carlisle at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Carlisle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

S. Walker

Bradford · G

7.5

Match Events

34'

Charlie McArthur

54'

C. Kavanagh↳ A. Pattison

68'

C. Scott← S. Wearne

69'

J. Ellis← B. Barclay

69'

S. Fusire← W. Patching

75'

C. Harper← E. Embleton

76'

Antoni Sarcevic

82'

C. Johnson← A. Baldwin

87'

Lewis Richards

90+1'

T. Leigh← C. Kavanagh

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CarlisleBradford

Overview

60%Possession40%

9Total Shots8

6Corners4

9Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots8

3On Target2

2Off Target5

4Blocked1

7Inside Box6

2Outside Box2

Passing

60%Possession40%

514Total Passes337

395Accurate Passes226

77%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls16

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides4