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Bradford vs Carlisle — League Two 2018

Bradford
Bradfordadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Carlisle
Carlisle
J. Walker 18'
5/14/2023League TwoLeague Two · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsUniversity of Bradford Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Bradford45%
×Draw27%
Carlisle28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bradford
1.36
Carlisle
1.02

Bradford creates 33% more chances

Season form · 141 home / 115 away

creates per match

Bradford
1.37
Carlisle
1.07

allows per match

Bradford
0.96
Carlisle
1.35

finishing

Bradford+0.00on par
Carlisle+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bradford ↓

Carlisle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bradford or draw
72%
Bradford or Carlisle
73%
Draw or Carlisle
55%

Winning margin

Bradford wins by 2+
21%
Carlisle wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bradford 1+ goals
74%
Bradford 2+ goals
39%
Bradford 3+ goals
16%
Carlisle 1+ goals
64%
Carlisle 2+ goals
27%
Carlisle 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bradford (draw refunded)
61%
Carlisle (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bradford at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.96 · 141 matches

Carlisle away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.35 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bradford attack 1.37 + Carlisle defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.36

Carlisle attack 1.07 + Bradford defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bradford scores more
45%
level
27%
Carlisle scores more
28%

Bradford at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bradford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
O. MoxonCarlisleCarlisle · M
7.7

Match Events

8'
Corey Whelan
18'
J. Walker↳ S. Banks
32'
Joe Garner
58'
K. Dennis← O. Patrick
58'
R. Edmondson← J. Garner
65'
E. Osadebe← J. Walker
69'
T. Charters← C. Guy
85'
J. Gibson← J. Senior
88'
M. Derbyshire← A. Clayton
88'
M. Platt← S. Banks

Possession

50%Bradford

Shots

10Bradford

Pass accuracy

49%Bradford

Statistics

BradfordCarlisle
Overview
50%Possession50%
10Total Shots9
5Corners3
7Fouls7
Shots
10Total Shots9
2On Target1
4Off Target6
4Blocked2
4Inside Box8
6Outside Box1
Passing
50%Possession50%
360Total Passes373
218Accurate Passes239
61%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
7Fouls7
0Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

League Two: Bradford 1–0 Carlisle

Bradford beat Carlisle 1-0 in League Two on May 14, 2023.

Goals: J. Walker (18').

Bradford controlled possession (50%) and registered 10 shots to 9.

The match was played at University of Bradford Stadium in Bradford, West Yorkshire.