Carlisle 1–2 AFC Wimbledon: Result & Stats

Carlisle

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

AFC Wimbledon

M. Dennis 67'

A. Smith 49'

C. Maycock 2'

3/15/2025

League Two · Round 37Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Carlisle38%

×Draw29%

AFC Wimbledon33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarlisleExpected goals in this matchAFC Wimbledon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.07

Carlisle

1.18

AFC Wimbledon

1.07

Carlisle creates 10% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 73 away

1.26

creates per match

0.93

1.21

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Carlisle

1.26

AFC Wimbledon

0.93

allows per match

Carlisle

1.21

AFC Wimbledon

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

AFC Wimbledon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw

67%

Carlisle or AFC Wimbledon

71%

Draw or AFC Wimbledon

62%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+

16%

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals

69%

Carlisle 2+ goals

33%

Carlisle 3+ goals

12%

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

66%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

29%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)

54%

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.10 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.26 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.18

AFC Wimbledon attack 0.93 + Carlisle defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Carlisle scores more

38%

level

29%

AFC Wimbledon scores more

33%

Carlisle at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Carlisle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

A. Smith

AFC Wimbledon · M

8.2

Match Events

2'

C. Maycock↳ A. Smith

15'

James Furlong

49'

A. Smith↳ J. Neufville

54'

C. Scott← J. Bevan

65'

I. Ogundere← J. Furlong

66'

C. Whelan← C. Guy

66'

S. Wearne← J. Vela

66'

M. Hippolyte← C. Maycock

67'

M. Dennis↳ K. Harris

79'

J. Kelly← M. Stevens

86'

G. Kelly← M. Dennis

86'

E. Embleton← J. Jones

87'

Sam Hutchinson

90+1'

Samuel Lavelle

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CarlisleAFC

Overview

60%Possession40%

10Total Shots10

5Corners2

8Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots10

3On Target7

3Off Target3

4Blocked0

6Inside Box8

4Outside Box2

Passing

60%Possession40%

496Total Passes345

387Accurate Passes225

78%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3