AFC Wimbledon 4–0 Carlisle: Result & Stats

AFC Wimbledon

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Carlisle

M. Stevens 50', 39', 8'

C. Harper 45+3' (OG)

10/12/2024

League Two · Round 11The Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

AFC Wimbledon45%

×Draw27%

Carlisle28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC WimbledonExpected goals in this matchCarlisle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.04

AFC Wimbledon

1.41

Carlisle

1.04

AFC Wimbledon creates 36% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 115 away

1.47

creates per match

1.07

1.00

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.47

Carlisle

1.07

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.00

Carlisle

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Carlisle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Carlisle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw

72%

AFC Wimbledon or Carlisle

73%

Draw or Carlisle

55%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

22%

Carlisle wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

76%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

41%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

17%

Carlisle 1+ goals

65%

Carlisle 2+ goals

28%

Carlisle 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

62%

Carlisle (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.00 · 74 matches

Carlisle away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.35 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.47 + Carlisle defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.41

Carlisle attack 1.07 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more

45%

level

27%

Carlisle scores more

28%

AFC Wimbledon at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "AFC Wimbledon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

M. Stevens

AFC Wimbledon · F

9.7

Match Events

6'

Callum Maycock

8'

M. Stevens↳ J. Tilley

34'

Ben Barclay

39'

M. Stevens

45+3'

C. HarperOwn goal

46'

L. Armstrong← C. Wyke

46'

J. Robinson← A. Davies

50'

M. Stevens↳ J. Tilley

56'

Riley Harbottle

60'

Josh Vela

64'

C. Guy← D. Sadi

64'

T. Charters← J. Vela

72'

J. Pigott← Omar Bugiel

72'

J. Kelly← M. Stevens

76'

H. Biler← J. Neufville

90'

J. Furlong← M. Hippolyte

90'

R. Johnson← I. Ogundere

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AFCCarlisle

Overview

36%Possession64%

13Total Shots3

6Corners2

16Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots3

4On Target1

6Off Target1

3Blocked1

8Inside Box1

5Outside Box2

Passing

36%Possession64%

337Total Passes616

249Accurate Passes508

74%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2