Carlisle 2–1 Accrington ST: Result & Stats

Carlisle

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Accrington ST

L. Armstrong 54'

K. Harris 11'

T. Walton 73'

12/29/2024

League Two · Round 23Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Carlisle44%

×Draw26%

Accrington ST29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarlisleExpected goals in this matchAccrington ST

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.11

Carlisle

1.42

Accrington ST

1.11

Carlisle creates 28% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 91 away

1.26

creates per match

1.02

1.21

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Carlisle

1.26

Accrington ST

1.02

allows per match

Carlisle

1.21

Accrington ST

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par

Accrington ST+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Accrington ST →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw

71%

Carlisle or Accrington ST

74%

Draw or Accrington ST

56%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+

21%

Accrington ST wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals

76%

Carlisle 2+ goals

41%

Carlisle 3+ goals

17%

Accrington ST 1+ goals

67%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

30%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)

60%

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.57 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.26 + Accrington ST defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.42

Accrington ST attack 1.02 + Carlisle defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Carlisle scores more

44%

level

26%

Accrington ST scores more

29%

Carlisle at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Carlisle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

T. Walton

Accrington ST · F

7.9

Match Events

11'

K. Harris↳ J. Mellish

29'

41'

46'

49'

50'

54'

58'

60'

D. Martin← N. Khumbeni

60'

A. Hunter← S. Conneely

66'

71'

73'

74'

75'

81'

86'

88'

88'

A. Henderson← T. Walton

90+2'

Jordan Jones

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CarlisleAccrington

Overview

47%Possession53%

11Total Shots12

4Corners4

12Fouls17

Shots

11Total Shots12

2On Target5

8Off Target5

1Blocked2

7Inside Box5

4Outside Box7

Passing

47%Possession53%

282Total Passes318

177Accurate Passes210

63%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls17

5Yellow Cards5

0Offsides2