Accrington ST 1–1 Carlisle: Result & Stats

Accrington ST

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Carlisle

S. Aljofree 69'

C. Whelan 90+2'

4/21/2025

League Two · Round 44Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Accrington ST40%

×Draw27%

Carlisle33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Accrington STExpected goals in this matchCarlisle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.21

Accrington ST

1.35

Carlisle

1.21

Accrington ST creates 12% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 115 away

1.35

creates per match

1.07

1.35

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Accrington ST

1.35

Carlisle

1.07

allows per match

Accrington ST

1.35

Carlisle

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Accrington ST+0.00on par

Carlisle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Carlisle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw

67%

Accrington ST or Carlisle

73%

Draw or Carlisle

60%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+

18%

Carlisle wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals

74%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

39%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

15%

Carlisle 1+ goals

70%

Carlisle 2+ goals

34%

Carlisle 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

54%

Carlisle (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.35 · 91 matches

Carlisle away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.35 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 1.35 + Carlisle defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.35

Carlisle attack 1.07 + Accrington ST defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Accrington ST scores more

40%

level

27%

Carlisle scores more

33%

Accrington ST at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

S. Aljofree

Accrington ST · D

7.7

Match Events

62'

J. O'Brien-Whitmarsh← J. Woods

69'

S. Aljofree↳ B. Woods

70'

E. Embleton← S. Wearne

70'

J. Vela← S. Fusire

76'

K. Mooney← S. Whalley

77'

86'

87'

90+3'

90+4'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AccringtonCarlisle

Overview

45%Possession55%

5Total Shots10

2Corners2

8Fouls9

Shots

5Total Shots10

1On Target4

2Off Target5

2Blocked1

2Inside Box7

3Outside Box3

Passing

45%Possession55%

292Total Passes358

154Accurate Passes224

53%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

8Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides3