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Carl Zeiss Jena II vs Budissa Bautzen — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Carl Zeiss Jena II
Carl Zeiss Jena II
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Budissa Bautzen
Budissa Bautzen
6/11/2022Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 32Ernst-Abbe-Sportfeld Platz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Carl Zeiss Jena II37%
×Draw23%
Budissa Bautzen40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carl Zeiss Jena II
1.62
Budissa Bautzen
1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 77 away

creates per match

Carl Zeiss Jena II
1.11
Budissa Bautzen
1.78

allows per match

Carl Zeiss Jena II
1.58
Budissa Bautzen
2.12

finishing

Carl Zeiss Jena II+0.00on par
Budissa Bautzen+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carl Zeiss Jena II ↓

Budissa Bautzen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Carl Zeiss Jena II or draw
60%
Carl Zeiss Jena II or Budissa Bautzen
77%
Draw or Budissa Bautzen
63%

Winning margin

Carl Zeiss Jena II wins by 2+
18%
Budissa Bautzen wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Carl Zeiss Jena II 1+ goals
80%
Carl Zeiss Jena II 2+ goals
48%
Carl Zeiss Jena II 3+ goals
22%
Budissa Bautzen 1+ goals
81%
Budissa Bautzen 2+ goals
50%
Budissa Bautzen 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Carl Zeiss Jena II (draw refunded)
48%
Budissa Bautzen (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carl Zeiss Jena II at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

Budissa Bautzen away — creates 1.78, concedes 2.12 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carl Zeiss Jena II attack 1.11 + Budissa Bautzen defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.62

Budissa Bautzen attack 1.78 + Carl Zeiss Jena II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Carl Zeiss Jena II scores more
37%
level
23%
Budissa Bautzen scores more
40%

Budissa Bautzen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Budissa Bautzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carl Zeiss Jena II vs Budissa Bautzen

Carl Zeiss Jena II beat Budissa Bautzen 4-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on June 11, 2022.

The match was played at Ernst-Abbe-Sportfeld Platz 2 in Jena.