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Budissa Bautzen vs Carl Zeiss Jena II — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Budissa Bautzen
Budissa Bautzen
FT
1 – 0
Carl Zeiss Jena II
Carl Zeiss Jena II
11/6/2021Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 13Stadion Müllerwiese

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Budissa Bautzen47%
×Draw22%
Carl Zeiss Jena II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budissa Bautzen
1.98
Carl Zeiss Jena II
1.58

Budissa Bautzen creates 25% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 22 away

creates per match

Budissa Bautzen
2.10
Carl Zeiss Jena II
1.77

allows per match

Budissa Bautzen
1.39
Carl Zeiss Jena II
1.86

finishing

Budissa Bautzen+0.00on par
Carl Zeiss Jena II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budissa Bautzen ↓

Carl Zeiss Jena II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Budissa Bautzen or draw
69%
Budissa Bautzen or Carl Zeiss Jena II
78%
Draw or Carl Zeiss Jena II
53%

Winning margin

Budissa Bautzen wins by 2+
27%
Carl Zeiss Jena II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Budissa Bautzen 1+ goals
86%
Budissa Bautzen 2+ goals
59%
Budissa Bautzen 3+ goals
31%
Carl Zeiss Jena II 1+ goals
79%
Carl Zeiss Jena II 2+ goals
47%
Carl Zeiss Jena II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Budissa Bautzen (draw refunded)
60%
Carl Zeiss Jena II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budissa Bautzen at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.39 · 77 matches

Carl Zeiss Jena II away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budissa Bautzen attack 2.10 + Carl Zeiss Jena II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.98

Carl Zeiss Jena II attack 1.77 + Budissa Bautzen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Budissa Bautzen scores more
47%
level
22%
Carl Zeiss Jena II scores more
31%

Budissa Bautzen at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Budissa Bautzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: Budissa Bautzen 1–0 Carl Zeiss Jena II

Budissa Bautzen beat Carl Zeiss Jena II 1-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on November 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Müllerwiese in Bautzen.