Cariñena 2–1 Binéfar: Result & Stats

Cariñena

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Binéfar

11/26/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 12Campo de Futbol La Platera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Cariñena35%

×Draw26%

Binéfar39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CariñenaExpected goals in this matchBinéfar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.35

Cariñena

1.27

Binéfar

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 111 away

1.34

creates per match

1.27

1.43

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Cariñena

1.34

Binéfar

1.27

allows per match

Cariñena

1.43

Binéfar

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cariñena+0.00on par

Binéfar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cariñena ↓

Binéfar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cariñena or draw

61%

Cariñena or Binéfar

74%

Draw or Binéfar

65%

Winning margin

Cariñena wins by 2+

15%

Binéfar wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Cariñena 1+ goals

72%

Cariñena 2+ goals

36%

Cariñena 3+ goals

14%

Binéfar 1+ goals

74%

Binéfar 2+ goals

39%

Binéfar 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Cariñena (draw refunded)

47%

Binéfar (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cariñena at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.43 · 82 matches

Binéfar away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cariñena attack 1.34 + Binéfar defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Binéfar attack 1.27 + Cariñena defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cariñena scores more

35%

level

26%

Binéfar scores more

39%

Binéfar at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Binéfar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff