Binéfar 2–2 Cariñena: Result & Stats

Binéfar

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Cariñena

4/14/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 29Estadio de Los Olmos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Binéfar54%

×Draw24%

Cariñena22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BinéfarExpected goals in this matchCariñena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.95

Binéfar

1.66

Cariñena

0.95

Binéfar creates 75% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 82 away

1.48

creates per match

0.91

0.98

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Binéfar

1.48

Cariñena

0.91

allows per match

Binéfar

0.98

Cariñena

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Binéfar+0.00on par

Cariñena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Binéfar ↓

Cariñena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Binéfar or draw

78%

Binéfar or Cariñena

76%

Draw or Cariñena

46%

Winning margin

Binéfar wins by 2+

29%

Cariñena wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Binéfar 1+ goals

81%

Binéfar 2+ goals

49%

Binéfar 3+ goals

23%

Cariñena 1+ goals

61%

Cariñena 2+ goals

25%

Cariñena 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Binéfar (draw refunded)

71%

Cariñena (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Binéfar at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.98 · 110 matches

Cariñena away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.83 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Binéfar attack 1.48 + Cariñena defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.66

Cariñena attack 0.91 + Binéfar defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Binéfar scores more

54%

level

24%

Cariñena scores more

22%

Binéfar at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Binéfar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff