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Cariari Pococi vs Barrio México — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Cariari Pococi
Cariari Pococi
FT
2 – 2
Barrio México
Barrio México
M. Tercero 68'
Unknown 60'
M. Martin 45+1'
J. Arias 22'
11/7/2021Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 18Estadio Ebal Rodríguez Aguilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Cariari Pococi40%
×Draw25%
Barrio México35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cariari Pococi
1.52
Barrio México
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 43 away

creates per match

Cariari Pococi
1.68
Barrio México
1.42

allows per match

Cariari Pococi
1.40
Barrio México
1.37

finishing

Cariari Pococi+0.00on par
Barrio México+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cariari Pococi ↓

Barrio México →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Cariari Pococi or draw
65%
Cariari Pococi or Barrio México
75%
Draw or Barrio México
60%

Winning margin

Cariari Pococi wins by 2+
20%
Barrio México wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Cariari Pococi 1+ goals
78%
Cariari Pococi 2+ goals
45%
Cariari Pococi 3+ goals
20%
Barrio México 1+ goals
76%
Barrio México 2+ goals
41%
Barrio México 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Cariari Pococi (draw refunded)
53%
Barrio México (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cariari Pococi at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.40 · 108 matches

Barrio México away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.37 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cariari Pococi attack 1.68 + Barrio México defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.52

Barrio México attack 1.42 + Cariari Pococi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cariari Pococi scores more
40%
level
25%
Barrio México scores more
35%

Cariari Pococi at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cariari Pococi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
J. Arias
45+1'
M. Martin
60'
68'
M. Tercero

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cariari Pococi vs Barrio México

Cariari Pococi and Barrio México drew 2-2 in Liga de Ascenso on November 7, 2021.

Goals: J. Arias (22'), M. Martin (45+1'), ? (60'), M. Tercero (68').

The match was played at Estadio Ebal Rodríguez Aguilar in Guápiles.