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Barrio México vs Cariari Pococi — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Barrio México
Barrio México
FT
6 – 2
HT: 5 – 2
Cariari Pococi
Cariari Pococi
Unknown 57', 42', 38', 36', 27', 26'
Unknown 20', 13'
4/10/2022Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 18Estadio Municipal El Labrador de Coronado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Barrio México59%
×Draw22%
Cariari Pococi19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barrio México
1.94
Cariari Pococi
1.02

Barrio México creates 90% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 107 away

creates per match

Barrio México
2.09
Cariari Pococi
1.23

allows per match

Barrio México
0.80
Cariari Pococi
1.80

finishing

Barrio México+0.00on par
Cariari Pococi+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrio México ↓

Cariari Pococi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Barrio México or draw
81%
Barrio México or Cariari Pococi
78%
Draw or Cariari Pococi
41%

Winning margin

Barrio México wins by 2+
35%
Cariari Pococi wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Barrio México 1+ goals
86%
Barrio México 2+ goals
58%
Barrio México 3+ goals
30%
Cariari Pococi 1+ goals
64%
Cariari Pococi 2+ goals
27%
Cariari Pococi 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Barrio México (draw refunded)
75%
Cariari Pococi (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrio México at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

Cariari Pococi away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.80 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrio México attack 2.09 + Cariari Pococi defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.94

Cariari Pococi attack 1.23 + Barrio México defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Barrio México scores more
59%
level
22%
Cariari Pococi scores more
19%

Barrio México at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Barrio México will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
20'
26'
27'
36'
38'
42'
57'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Barrio México 6–2 Cariari Pococi

Barrio México beat Cariari Pococi 6-2 in Liga de Ascenso on April 10, 2022.

Goals: ? (13', 20', 26', 27', 36', 38', 42', 57').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Labrador de Coronado in San Jose.