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Cariari Pococi vs AS Puma Generalena — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Cariari Pococi
Cariari Pococi
FT
1 – 1
AS Puma Generalena
AS Puma Generalena
1/20/2019Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 2Polideportivo de Cariarí (Cariari)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Cariari Pococi52%
×Draw23%
AS Puma Generalena25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cariari Pococi
1.77
AS Puma Generalena
1.14

Cariari Pococi creates 55% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 73 away

creates per match

Cariari Pococi
1.65
AS Puma Generalena
0.89

allows per match

Cariari Pococi
1.38
AS Puma Generalena
1.90

finishing

Cariari Pococi+0.00on par
AS Puma Generalena+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cariari Pococi ↓

AS Puma Generalena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Cariari Pococi or draw
75%
Cariari Pococi or AS Puma Generalena
77%
Draw or AS Puma Generalena
48%

Winning margin

Cariari Pococi wins by 2+
29%
AS Puma Generalena wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cariari Pococi 1+ goals
83%
Cariari Pococi 2+ goals
53%
Cariari Pococi 3+ goals
26%
AS Puma Generalena 1+ goals
68%
AS Puma Generalena 2+ goals
32%
AS Puma Generalena 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Cariari Pococi (draw refunded)
68%
AS Puma Generalena (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cariari Pococi at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.38 · 107 matches

AS Puma Generalena away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.90 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cariari Pococi attack 1.65 + AS Puma Generalena defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.77

AS Puma Generalena attack 0.89 + Cariari Pococi defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cariari Pococi scores more
52%
level
23%
AS Puma Generalena scores more
25%

Cariari Pococi at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cariari Pococi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cariari Pococi vs AS Puma Generalena

Cariari Pococi and AS Puma Generalena drew 1-1 in Liga de Ascenso on January 20, 2019.

The match was played at Polideportivo de Cariarí (Cariari).