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AS Puma Generalena vs Cariari Pococi — Liga de Ascenso 2018

AS Puma Generalena
AS Puma Generalena
FT
3 – 1
Cariari Pococi
Cariari Pococi
8/4/2018Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 2Polideportivo de Pérez Zeledón (San Isidro de El General)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

AS Puma Generalena43%
×Draw25%
Cariari Pococi32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Puma Generalena
1.54
Cariari Pococi
1.29

AS Puma Generalena creates 19% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 107 away

creates per match

AS Puma Generalena
1.28
Cariari Pococi
1.23

allows per match

AS Puma Generalena
1.36
Cariari Pococi
1.80

finishing

AS Puma Generalena+0.00on par
Cariari Pococi+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Puma Generalena ↓

Cariari Pococi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

AS Puma Generalena or draw
68%
AS Puma Generalena or Cariari Pococi
75%
Draw or Cariari Pococi
57%

Winning margin

AS Puma Generalena wins by 2+
21%
Cariari Pococi wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

AS Puma Generalena 1+ goals
79%
AS Puma Generalena 2+ goals
45%
AS Puma Generalena 3+ goals
20%
Cariari Pococi 1+ goals
72%
Cariari Pococi 2+ goals
37%
Cariari Pococi 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

AS Puma Generalena (draw refunded)
57%
Cariari Pococi (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Puma Generalena at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.36 · 76 matches

Cariari Pococi away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.80 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Puma Generalena attack 1.28 + Cariari Pococi defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.54

Cariari Pococi attack 1.23 + AS Puma Generalena defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

AS Puma Generalena scores more
43%
level
25%
Cariari Pococi scores more
32%

AS Puma Generalena at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "AS Puma Generalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: AS Puma Generalena 3–1 Cariari Pococi

AS Puma Generalena beat Cariari Pococi 3-1 in Liga de Ascenso on August 4, 2018.

The match was played at Polideportivo de Pérez Zeledón (San Isidro de El General).