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Cariari Pococi vs ADR Jicaral — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Cariari Pococi
Cariari Pococi
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
ADR Jicaral
ADR Jicaral
11/23/2025Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Cariari Pococi37%
×Draw26%
ADR Jicaral37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cariari Pococi
1.38
ADR Jicaral
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 96 away

creates per match

Cariari Pococi
1.68
ADR Jicaral
1.34

allows per match

Cariari Pococi
1.40
ADR Jicaral
1.07

finishing

Cariari Pococi+0.00on par
ADR Jicaral+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cariari Pococi ↓

ADR Jicaral →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Cariari Pococi or draw
63%
Cariari Pococi or ADR Jicaral
74%
Draw or ADR Jicaral
63%

Winning margin

Cariari Pococi wins by 2+
17%
ADR Jicaral wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Cariari Pococi 1+ goals
75%
Cariari Pococi 2+ goals
40%
Cariari Pococi 3+ goals
16%
ADR Jicaral 1+ goals
75%
ADR Jicaral 2+ goals
40%
ADR Jicaral 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Cariari Pococi (draw refunded)
50%
ADR Jicaral (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cariari Pococi at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.40 · 108 matches

ADR Jicaral away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.07 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cariari Pococi attack 1.68 + ADR Jicaral defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.38

ADR Jicaral attack 1.34 + Cariari Pococi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cariari Pococi scores more
37%
level
26%
ADR Jicaral scores more
37%

Cariari Pococi at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cariari Pococi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cariari Pococi vs ADR Jicaral

Cariari Pococi and ADR Jicaral drew 0-0 in Liga de Ascenso on November 23, 2025.