ADR Jicaral 3–0 Cariari Pococi: Result & Stats

ADR Jicaral

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cariari Pococi

L. Gomez 79'

R. Rojas 56', 45'

4/20/2025

Liga de Ascenso · Clausura - Quarter-finalsCancha de la Asociación Cívica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

ADR Jicaral59%

×Draw21%

Cariari Pococi19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ADR JicaralExpected goals in this matchCariari Pococi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.06

ADR Jicaral

2.02

Cariari Pococi

1.06

ADR Jicaral creates 91% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 107 away

2.25

creates per match

1.23

0.89

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

ADR Jicaral

2.25

Cariari Pococi

1.23

allows per match

ADR Jicaral

0.89

Cariari Pococi

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ADR Jicaral+0.00on par

Cariari Pococi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADR Jicaral ↓

Cariari Pococi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

ADR Jicaral or draw

81%

ADR Jicaral or Cariari Pococi

79%

Draw or Cariari Pococi

41%

Winning margin

ADR Jicaral wins by 2+

36%

Cariari Pococi wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

ADR Jicaral 1+ goals

87%

ADR Jicaral 2+ goals

60%

ADR Jicaral 3+ goals

33%

Cariari Pococi 1+ goals

65%

Cariari Pococi 2+ goals

29%

Cariari Pococi 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

ADR Jicaral (draw refunded)

75%

Cariari Pococi (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADR Jicaral at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.89 · 95 matches

Cariari Pococi away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.80 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADR Jicaral attack 2.25 + Cariari Pococi defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.02

Cariari Pococi attack 1.23 + ADR Jicaral defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

ADR Jicaral scores more

59%

level

21%

Cariari Pococi scores more

19%

ADR Jicaral at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "ADR Jicaral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

R. Rojas

56'

R. Rojas

79'

L. Gomez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff