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Cardiff vs Swansea — Championship 2025

Cardiff
Cardiff
Preview
15:00
Swansea
Swansea
3/13/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 37Cardiff City Stadium
Big match
44%
Cardiff
model favours
44%28%28%

Swansea have scored in 14 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Cardiff44%
×Draw28%
Swansea28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardiff
1.31
Swansea
0.99

Cardiff creates 32% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 36 away

creates per match

Cardiff
1.10
Swansea
0.89

allows per match

Cardiff
1.08
Swansea
1.53

finishing

Cardiff+0.00on par
Swansea+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Swansea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw
72%
Cardiff or Swansea
72%
Draw or Swansea
56%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+
20%
Swansea wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals
73%
Cardiff 2+ goals
38%
Cardiff 3+ goals
14%
Swansea 1+ goals
63%
Swansea 2+ goals
26%
Swansea 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)
61%
Swansea (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.08 · 60 matches

Swansea away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.10 + Swansea defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.31

Swansea attack 0.89 + Cardiff defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cardiff scores more
44%
level
28%
Swansea scores more
28%

Cardiff at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Swansea score first in only 13% of matches
  • Both teams score in 83% of Swansea’s matches
  • Swansea win just 20% of their away games

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Cardiff
WLLWW
Swansea
WDWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cardiff face Swansea (Championship)

Championship returns with Cardiff hosting Swansea. Match starts March 13, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Cardiff host Swansea at Cardiff City Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.