Cardiff 0–2 Swansea: Result & Stats | Championship

Cardiff

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Swansea

J. Lowe 72', 6'

12/12/2020

Championship · Round 18Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Cardiff41%

×Draw26%

Swansea33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CardiffExpected goals in this matchSwansea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.21

Cardiff

1.37

Swansea

1.21

Cardiff creates 13% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 22 away

1.13

creates per match

1.15

1.26

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Cardiff

1.13

Swansea

1.15

allows per match

Cardiff

1.26

Swansea

1.61

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Cardiff+0.03on par

Swansea-0.15scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Swansea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw

67%

Cardiff or Swansea

74%

Draw or Swansea

59%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+

19%

Swansea wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals

75%

Cardiff 2+ goals

40%

Cardiff 3+ goals

16%

Swansea 1+ goals

70%

Swansea 2+ goals

34%

Swansea 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)

55%

Swansea (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.26 · 32 matches

Swansea away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.61 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.13 + Swansea defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.37

Swansea attack 1.15 + Cardiff defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cardiff scores more

41%

level

26%

Swansea scores more

33%

Cardiff at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

J. Lowe

Swansea · F

8.2

Match Events

6'

14'

18'

35'

35'

46'

56'

67'

67'

72'

77'

87'

W. Routledge← J. Lowe

90'

G. Whyte← W. Vaulks

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CardiffSwansea

Overview

42%Possession58%

8Total Shots11

2Corners2

19Fouls12

Shots

8Total Shots11

2On Target4

5Off Target5

1Blocked2

4Inside Box6

4Outside Box5

Passing

42%Possession58%

357Total Passes470

254Accurate Passes373

71%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls12

4Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Cardiff vs Swansea

Swansea beat Cardiff 2-0 in Championship on December 12, 2020.

Goals: J. Lowe (6', 72').

Swansea controlled possession (58%) and registered 11 shots to 8.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Caerdydd.

Cardiff vs Swansea — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Cardiff vs Swansea