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Cardiff vs Swansea — Championship 2018

Cardiff
Cardiff
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Swansea
Swansea
1/12/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 27Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Cardiff41%
×Draw26%
Swansea32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardiff
1.38
Swansea
1.19

Cardiff creates 16% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 23 away

creates per match

Cardiff
1.12
Swansea
1.12

allows per match

Cardiff
1.25
Swansea
1.64

finishing

Cardiff+0.09on par
Swansea-0.16scores less

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Swansea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw
68%
Cardiff or Swansea
74%
Draw or Swansea
59%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+
19%
Swansea wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals
75%
Cardiff 2+ goals
40%
Cardiff 3+ goals
16%
Swansea 1+ goals
70%
Swansea 2+ goals
33%
Swansea 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)
56%
Swansea (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.25 · 33 matches

Swansea away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.64 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.12 + Swansea defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.38

Swansea attack 1.12 + Cardiff defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cardiff scores more
41%
level
26%
Swansea scores more
32%

Cardiff at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Cardiff 0–0 Swansea

Cardiff and Swansea drew 0-0 in Championship on January 12, 2020.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Caerdydd.