Cardiff 1–0 Norwich: Result & Stats | Championship

Cardiff

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Norwich

R. Sawyers 49'

7/30/2022

Championship · Round 1Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 38+ matches

Cardiff36%

×Draw27%

Norwich37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CardiffExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.29

Cardiff

1.26

Norwich

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 60 away

1.05

creates per match

1.22

1.37

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Cardiff

1.05

Norwich

1.22

allows per match

Cardiff

1.37

Norwich

1.47

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Cardiff+0.03on par

Norwich+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw

63%

Cardiff or Norwich

73%

Draw or Norwich

64%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+

16%

Norwich wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals

72%

Cardiff 2+ goals

36%

Cardiff 3+ goals

13%

Norwich 1+ goals

72%

Norwich 2+ goals

37%

Norwich 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)

49%

Norwich (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.47 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.05 + Norwich defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.26

Norwich attack 1.22 + Cardiff defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cardiff scores more

36%

level

27%

Norwich scores more

37%

Norwich at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

M. Romeo

Cardiff · D

7.5

Match Events

44'

Cédric Kipré

49'

R. Sawyers↳ C. O'Dowda

54'

Callum O'Dowda

59'

M. Harris← R. Sawyers

60'

68'

68'

69'

69'

72'

D. Sinani← J. Sargent

72'

L. Gibbs← J. Sørensen

73'

Perry Ng

73'

Perry Ng

75'

C. Nelson← S. Ojo

78'

J. Hugill← T. Pukki

81'

T. Sang← A. Rinomhota

81'

G. Whyte← C. ODowda

84'

S. McCallum← M. Rashica

84'

O. Hernández← D. Giannoulis

85'

Grant Hanley

85'

Grant Hanley

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CardiffNorwich

Overview

45%Possession55%

3Total Shots7

1Corners7

16Fouls9

Shots

3Total Shots7

2On Target1

1Off Target3

0Blocked3

0Inside Box4

3Outside Box3

Passing

45%Possession55%

360Total Passes432

269Accurate Passes336

75%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls9

6Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards1

1Offsides2